Ch 4 OM

Which statement is NOT true regarding forecasting?

Forecasting is exclusively an objective prediction

A forecast that addresses the business cycle by predicting planning indicators is:

an economic forecast

CPFR is:

collaborative, planning, forecasting, and replenishment

The goal is CPFR is to:

create significantly more accurate info that can power the supply chain

Which statement is NOT true?

When excess capacity exists, cost can decrease

Which is the FIRST step in a forecasting system?

determine the use of the forecast

Which is the FINAL step in a forecasting system?

Validate and implement the results

Which is a reality each company faces regarding its forecasting system?

outside factors that we cannot predict or control often impact the forecast

Which forecasting steps comes directly after determining the time horizon of the forecast?

Select the forecasting model(s)

Which is a quantitative forecasting method?

exponential smoothing

Which forecasting model is based upon salespersons’ estimates of expected sales?

sales force composite

Which is NOT a time-series model?

linear regression

Forecasting that tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application is referred as:

focus forecasting

Seasonality

is the data pattern that repeats itself after a period

A forecasting technique consistently produces a negative tracking signal. This means that

the forecasting technique consistently over-predicts

Which forecast error measure is probably the easiest to interpret?

MAPE

A data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days, weeks, months, or quarters

seasonality

A consistent tendency for forecasts to be greater or less than the actual values is called

a bias error

Linear regression is most similar to

the trend projection method of forecasting

A measure of strength of the relationship between two variables is referred to as the

coefficient of correlation

When using exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant

can be determined using MAD

With regard to a regression-based forecast, the standard error of the estimate gives a measure of

the variability around the regression line

A tracking signal

is a measurement of how well a forecast is predicting actual values

The forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for would be the

short range

Which forecasting method considers several variables that are related to the variable being predicted?

multiple regression

A forecast that projects a company’s sales is

a demand forecast

Which is a qualitative forecasting method

Delphi method

"Today’s forecast equals yesterday’s actual demand" is referred as

the naive approach